Sunday, July 26, 2009

negative inflation in india - what does that mean for us ?

as most of you have been reading in the papers about inflation being negative in india, you must be wondering why are prices rising, instead of falling.a little explanation should help.
in india we use two primary indices for measuring the rate of inflation, the consumer price index(cpi) and the wholesale price index(wpi).what the national media is shouting from the rooftops is about the latter being negative in recent times,which basically is made up of items like foodgrains,crude oil etc ,where a small percentage change or even a negative one affects the government and economic entities dealing in bulk with these products.in no way does it affect the end consumer, people like you and me.
what affects us is the cpi.the cpi is primarily composed of finished goods and services that households purchase.the cpi by the way,has always shown a rising trend,except for few exceptions,to use a cliche the cpi's movement has been, "onward and upward".hence all the hoopla and hype regarding the inflation being negative in india should not be much of a concern to the common man.
p.s. - plz excuse me for updating my blog after almost a year,i've been a very lazy fellow.to use a metaphor, i'm like a horse who needs a gadfly to make him run,today when i opened my insti mail box, i was instantly bitten by the gadfly.more on this later.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

business cycles

business cycles are basically short term fluctuations in broad macroeconomic variables.
what does one mean by the above mumbo jumbo?
1. for the time being imagine business cycles as something similar to sea waves, got it?
2.short term means that the time period in question is less than 10 yrs.
3.macroeconomic variables here refers to GDP(don't ask me whats dat!), rate of inflation and not to forget unemployment rate.

dat's all for now folks!!!